Walking Through A Recession

News on Wall Street this week was grim. After a few dramatic sessions on the stock exchange, talk of a looming recession grew louder in the mass media and on the campaign trail. In New York, luxury retailers like Tiffany reported soft holiday sales, and Starbucks is losing the coffee market to fast food giants. I'm concerned that the city will see a noticeable decline in visitors from the domestic US market, and it's clear that the New York tourist industry has shifted its marketing already to visitors from other countries. Many businesses will suffer from the ripple effect of a recession, even in New York.

What ever shall we do? What types of businesses and activities are recession-proof? Historically, the liquor business and movie theaters have been known to fare well during economic downturns. Money is tight, so a beer at a bar and a movie ticket ($6 + $12 = $18) would be more affordable than a prix fixe dinner and a Broadway show ($75 + $80 = $155), for example. Looks like the culture of the 1930s to me.

Personally, I would like to recommend walking as a way to get through a recession. It's free and fun (when you get the hang of it) and much cheaper than gasoline. For many, walking may become a necessity. In my recent attempts to pace out 10,000 steps a day, I find walking also to be time-consuming, a fact that shouldn't bother the unemployed.

Thanks to the colonel, who presented me with several vintage walking books for Christmas, I have learned that during the Great Depression, many Americans, through no choice of their own, reconnected with the pleasures of walking. Here's the Introduction of The Pleasures of Walking, edited by Edwin Valentine Mitchell, from 1934 (illustration here is also from the book) :

"When I remarked to a friend that I was engaged in compiling an anthology on the subject of walking, he said, 'I suppose the depressed state of the world has made walkers of a great many people who a few years ago were almost in danger of losing use of their legs. It's odd, when you stop to think of it, that because of the harshness of the times and the fact that shoe leather is cheaper than gasoline a lot of people have been driven to the discovery that walking is among the most rewarding pleasures of life.'

See? I see a great age of walking ahead of us.

For commentary on the recent Wall Street worries see the special walk, Walking Off the Wall Street Bears.

The Long Bright Shadows Along Broadway

I walked south on Broadway this afternoon, enjoying the bright, almost blinding afternoon light on an unseasonably warm January day. I stopped at J & R on Park Row to buy a pedometer, and then I went to a coffee shop to drink a skinny latte and read the directions. Afterwards I decided to continue walking south along Broadway, stopping for a minute on Wall Street to check today's markets. It wasn't a bad day for trading. I proceeded down to Bowling Green, sat for a minute or two on a bench to bask in these long shadows, and then I took the subway home. Weather like this is a rare treat, and I was heartened to see so many New Yorkers out enjoying themselves. Tomorrow promises more of the same warm weather.

The Morning News: Curtains Up on Broadway and Stocks Soar

The Broadway Strike is Over: The Broadway stagehands and the League of American Theaters and Producers reached a compromise yesterday, ending the painful 19-day strike. (NYT story here.) On the other hand, the writers at CBS News look like they will take to the picket lines in December.

The Stock Market Soars: The American economy seems so pitiful that the Feds signaled that a further rate cut may be in order. (NYT story here.) Hence, the stock market posted a stunning one-day gain yesterday. Just because the market had a good day, however, doesn't mean that the American consumer had one. Consumer confidence is down, credit is harder to get, and home foreclosures are up 94% over a year ago. Sorry.

After a pipeline explosion overnight, oil prices went up, so that may make investors nervous. Traders figure that people will not spend as much on the holidays if they have to spend more cash on gas. I think people will still try to acquire items on their shopping lists, but they'll look for the cheapest price possible. The consumer economy is all about persuading the consumer that desire equals need. Do I want a new 24-inch IMac, just like the one at my friend's house? Of course! Do I need it? Er...uh...if I could see WOTBA that big on the screen, then surely I would be the most famous website witch in all of New York.

Walking Off the Wall Street Bears, now concluded as a special feature, can be viewed in its entirety in the Walks of Fame section in the sidebar.

Coming today: How Not to Blow Your Diet During the Holidays, Illustrated; New Books 2007, and Midtown Art Galleries.

Walking Off the Wall Street Bears: My Fundamentals Are Deteriorating and My Personal Expectation Index is Partly Cloudy

I have recently started reading the business sections of newspapers and online news sites every single day. This is a startling turn of developments, and I have just come to understand why.

Before I lived in New York, I rarely read the business section of a newspaper, I think, because I could take the pulse of the economy just by looking around. In a time when I actually owned a vehicle and a single-family house, I could easily visualize downturns and upswings in the economy by driving my car through neighborhoods and to stores. I could see how quickly the SOLD signs appeared on houses on the market, and I could watch new activity, or lack thereof, in new home construction. The health of the housing market could be quickly assessed by the length of the line at the cash registers at Lowe's or Home Depot.

I could often extrapolate how other middle class energy consumers like myself reacted when I filled the gas tank of my car. When I lived in Texas or the Upper Midwest or the Deep South, I would occasionally pop into Wal-Mart in order to save money on dog food, craft supplies, allergy medicine, a T-shirt, a bottle of wine, a string of chili pepper lights, and some tamales all at once.

That was then. Now is now, and walking down Wall Street, as I pass the Bank of New York, the Stock Exchange, the House of Morgan, Federal Hall, the new branch of Tiffany's, new multi-million dollar condominiums, and offices for investment bankers, I realize nothing bears physical resemblance to the visual culture of the average American consumer, except for the Downtown Pharmacy and Starbucks. Maybe at this last place, a so-called "third place," I can put down the newspaper and forecast the economy just by reading the coffee grounds.

Image: Lower Manhattan, as seen from the Brooklyn Heights Promenade. Spring 2007. WOTBA.

See the complete walk, Walking Off the Wall Street Bears.

The Astor Family Saga, Abu Dhabi Gives Citigroup Some Spare Change, and the Decline of the New York Empire Within 24 Hours

The Manhattan D.A.'s office, in a script destined for Law & Order, will hold a news briefing today on the indictments of Anthony D. Marshall, 83, the only son of the late great Brooke Astor, and attorney Francis X. Morrissey Jr.* The briefing should reveal more specifics on the pending criminal charges against the two, the result of a grand jury investigation into the mishandling of Mrs. Astor's affairs and will. Philip Marshall, the son of Anthony Marshall, first raised the allegations that his father took advantage of his ailing grandmother and her fortune.

The painting at left, Childe Hassam's Up the Avenue from Thirty-Fourth Street, May 1917, also known as Flags, Fifth Avenue (1917)* plays an important role in the Astor family saga. Andrew Marshall sold the painting, one of his mother's favorites, for $10 million, and collecting a $2 million fee from his mother for all the bother. Personally, I would love to have this painting in my living room, so I would be royally pissed, as we say in my country, if a family member wanted to sell it.

The Hassam painting below, Lower Manhattan (1907, oil on canvas, Cornell University), depicts a crowd gathered in the Financial District. I plan to return there today so I can finish the feature, Walking Off the Wall Streets Bears, and help raise the spirits of the Street.

Yesterday, Citigroup announced that the oil-rich Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has pumped $7.5 billion worth of cash into its tank. The good news may help Wall Street recover some of the dramatic losses from yesterday's trading. A consumer confidence report will be released at 10 a.m. Personally I am feeling confident, not as a consumer, but that I should be exploring my next flâneur career in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

* When I read that Marshall and Morrissey partnered as producers on Broadway, I immediately thought of them as Max Bialystock and Leo Bloom from Mel Brooks's The Producers.

* For additional events from the Spring of 1917, as reported in these pages, please follow the links here and here.

Walking Off the Wall Street Bears: Confessions of a New York Consumer

Consumer spending drives approximately two-thirds of the United States economy, so it follows that Wall Street will become nervous if people stop buying all the stuff they would like to have but don't need. Thus, a quote,

"The other big concern is where is the consumer. Starbucks released earnings, and they said they ratcheted down estimates because of the softening consumer market. That's what the market does not want to see." - Andre Bakhos, president of Princeton Financial Group quoted in a story by Reuters and published in the November 16, 2007 edition of the NYT.

I hate to say it, but the softening of the consumer market usually begins with me. As a New Yorker who wants to support the local economy, I often feel guilty that I do not shop enough, especially for clothes. I am not a fashion plate, content as I am to walk the streets in last year's Ralph Lauren jeans or an Ann Taylor suit or, more typically, several interchangeable immortal outfits from a decade ago. When I went out this morning in the cold New York rain, I put on a classic full-length raincoat, a red scarf and a cowboy hat, glanced at myself in the mirror, and started reciting lines from Deadwood.

My father and mother shaped my consumer habits early, but in often conflicting ways. When I asked for something new, my father would respond with his own question, "Do you want it or need it?," a sticky inquiry that stayed with me all my life. My mother, on the other hand, would answer this question by deciding that I needed whatever clothes looked adorable at Neiman-Marcus.

In the end, I did not become a prolific shopper. I ask first if I need it, and then when I do make a purchase, I buy something of quality that I think will take me through a recession.

Image: Wall Street, looking east.

See the complete walk, Walking Off the Wall Street Bears.

Walking Off the Wall Street Bears: With George, and a Rally!

How spectacular Wall Street was this afternoon and prime for a little rally! I spent much of my time soaking in just a taste of afternoon sun that broke through the clouds, strolling up and down the short stretch of this expensive and historic real estate. Wall Street is cavernous and narrow, but the light that filters through on the east and west provides for some sexy lighting. Tiffany's has joined the street, very near a Starbucks, so there's much caffeinated glamour to take in.

I sat for awhile behind the statue of George Washington in front of Federal Hall and pondered his left foot. Across the street sits the House of Morgan, so it was the perfect place to contemplate the founding of the United States of America and the flourishing of the capitalist system. I reached no conclusions. I did venture into Federal Hall to look over the preview of the coming National Archives presence in the main exhibition halls, and I was excited to see many important documents of American history. Maybe if more people knew about this exhibit I would not be the only visitor. The gift shop is a good place to buy gifts relating to George Washington.

In financial news of the day, Wal-Mart reported surprisingly good earnings, largely due to its early discounts for the holidays. This great news rallied investors, cheered that consumers will buy enough merchandise for everyone throughout the merry season. Wal-Mart has attempted to open stores in New York City, but we have scared them off. You can read all about it here (NYT).

Image: Drawing in pen and colored pencil of the left foot of the statue of George Washington. Federal Hall. Wall Street. November 13, 2007.

See the complete walk, Walking Off the Wall Street Bears.

Walking Off the Wall Street Bears: A Subprimer

I am no financial genius, but the colonel and I sold our happy little bungalow in the American South a couple of years ago, a time of a local bubble, and we made a bit of money, albeit a pittance compared to New York real estate profits. * We also got rid of our cars. We were moving to Manhattan, after all, where bungalows do not exist, although I think they would make a charming addition to the landscape, and cars seemed way too much of an inconvenience.

Much of the worries on Wall Street these days stem from the crisis in subprime mortgages, risky loans to often credit-risky individuals to buy homes for themselves. However, these individuals found themselves overwhelmed financially with often high adjustable rate mortgages, and they faced foreclosure. Some of the lenders are also up a creek. All this is just sad. Manhattan, on the other hand, does not see much subprime action at all, because people buying condos and townhouses at 4 to 6 million and up are not financing these purchases through subprime mortgages. New Yorkers of means only deal in prime, like a yummy slice of prime rib roast.

Walking down Wall Street, I visualize the world I have seen outside the confines of Manhattan, one of a variety of homes - ranch houses, bungalows, Cape Coders, MacMansions, adobe houses, shotgun houses, and all the American vernacular, and all the people inside of them, figuring out how to manage their budgets. The elegant Federalist, Gothic Revival, Art Deco, and Beaux-Arts buildings in the Wall Street area, on the other hand, seem removed from this aforementioned crisis, like they're on an island.

WARNING: WOTBA's limited economic knowledge should not be used by real people engaged in financial speculation. I'm just going for the visuals on all this.

Image: Dorothea Lange. 1939. "Washington, western, Thurston County. Malone Company house in abandoned mill village now occupied by Work Projects Administration (WPA) worker." Library of Congress, Prints & Photographs Division, FSA-OWI Collection.

* However, WOTBA obviously has way too much time on her hands and should get a JOB.

See the complete walk, Walking Off the Wall Street Bears.

Walking Off The Big Apple Contemplates Going On Strike

Maybe. The Writer's Guild of America is on strike, so late night TV talk shows are in reruns. The Broadway stagehands are on strike, so much of Broadway is dark. So we have much unrest among the creative classes these days in ole New York. So maybe the lone website workers like myself can just quit typing on the laptop, too. Unfortunately, I have no one to strike against or protest. I stay home wearing my fingerless gloves and developing carpal tunnel syndrome, and I have no Scrooge to blame.

"What are some of the ominous portents of a serious economic downtown in the future?," you may ask WOTBA. "And what does it have to do with The Daily Show being in reruns?"

I am glad you asked. Workers of the creative world are on strike because the distribution of wealth has once again been stacked in favor of the HAVES. The writers would like some of the money from DVD sales and the re-use of their material on websites. I don't have any DVDs, but I can attest that I have seen my own words used, and without any compensation, upon the Internet. That was back when I actually had jobs and made an income. I have become accustomed lately, to paraphrase Joni Mitchell, to write real good for free.

Today is a day of light trading on Wall Street, as it's the Veterans Day holiday. One of the underlying causes of the Great Depression in the 1930s, and its importance goes far beyond the stock market crash of 1929, was the unequal distribution of wealth. As an old friend once said to me, "I don't have anything against money. I just wish more people had some."

By the way, I read an article in today's NYT that the striking writers are still writing and publishing elsewhere, because writers need to write all the time. But what of the Broadway stagehands? Are they building stage sets in their living rooms?

Walking Off the Wall Street Bears: Before the Opening Bell

As mentioned in a previous post, I'm visiting Wall Street this week to take some snapshots (more mental than photographic) of the looming economic crisis. I want to see if traders, fund managers, and other workers in the financial sector reveal any outward signs of distress. Will they walk and talk a different way? Will they be nervous and spilling their coffee on the sidewalk? We'll see! As with the other walks, I'll be commenting on buildings, restaurants, etc., but I'll also be chiming in with my amateur economic knowledge to translate the mood of the Street.

Let's begin with a few quotes, shall we?

"Of a Sunday, Wall-street is deserted as Petra; and every night of every day it is an emptiness. This building too, which of week-days hums with industry and life, at nightfall echoes with sheer vacancy, and all through Sunday is forlorn. And here Bartleby makes his home; sole spectator of a solitude which he has seen all populous—a sort of innocent and transformed Marius brooding among the ruins of Carthage!" - Herman Melville (1819-1891), Bartleby, the Scrivener: A Story of Wall-street (1853)

"Out of the din, overlooking the struggle, are, here, and there oases of silence, where self-contained men sit in carpeted offices behind guarded doors, armed with pens whose briefest tracings spell poverty or wealth; their fingers pressing tiny buttons that sway the markets of the world. " - From Charcoals of New and Old New York. Pictures and Text by F. Hopkinson Smith. New York: Doubleday, Page & Company. 1912. Image here of Wall Street by F. Hopkinson Smith.

See the complete walk, Walking Off the Wall Street Bears.

Walking Off the Wall Street Bears: Coming Soon

Walking Off the Big Apple likes to stroll where the mood strikes her. So, upon hearing of the demise of stocks, the worsening crisis in the subprime housing market, the various markdowns, the arrival of the "Pain Threshold," as reported earlier in these pages, WOTBA will soon embark on a Walk of Fame upon the wobbly cobblestones of Wall Street. There, she will encounter her evil twin, Dagny Taggart of Atlas Shrugged fame, window shop at the new Wall Street branch of Tiffany, eat some lunch, and visit upon Lower Manhattan her uninvited commentary on the contemporary visual culture of the American economy in crisis.

Image: Little grizzly bear. Sketch by WOTBA. American Museum of Natural History.

In the meantime, there shall be a potpourri of posts.

See Walking Off the Wall Street Bears.